PDP in
power but contesting elections in worst ever conditions
Tassaduq’s entry raises PDP’s stake; Jamaat’s
boycott in South Kashmir, Gujjar-Shia vote in low-turnout polling in Central
Kashmir pivotal
Ahmed Ali Fayyaz
________
Jammu, Mar 16: The fact that the principal opposition
parties National Conference (NC) and Congress have combined and fielded their
senior most leaders in the State in 1:1 arrangement in the by-elections on two
important Lok Sabha seats in Kashmir valley reveals the seriousness of the
interim exercise being held in two years of the general elections. Remarkably,
the ruling PDP-BJP coalition in contrast has harnessed two greenhorns, both
junior most in the ranks, in the election that would definitely have a bearing
not only on the Lok Sabha elections of 2019 and Assembly elections of 2020 but
also on the Mufti dynasty’s grip on the single largest party.
Farooq Abdullah, the State’s highest profile political
leader, who lost his 35-year-long career’s first election to then PDP candidate
Tariq Hamid Karra in 2014, is yet again NC’s candidate in
Srinagar-Budgam-Ganderbal seat. With the support of Congress, he is in the fray
against PDP’s Nazir Ahmad Khan. On Congress ticket, Khan had given a tough
fight to NC’s Chief Ministerial candidate Omar Abdullah in the Assembly
elections of 2014 in Beerwah. Less than a month ago, Khan shifted from Congress
to the PDP. His father Sarfaraz Khan had won from Beerwah on PDP’s ticket in
2002 and later served as a Minister in Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s Council of
Ministers.
With one difference, there is an identical contest in the
South Kashmir seat, comprising Anantnag, Kulgam, Pulwama and Shopian districts.
While the opposition has fielded the Jammu and Kashmir Pradesh Congress Committee
chief Ghulam Ahmad Mir, who has served as a Cabinet Minister twice and in the
post-2002 era lost only once from his home segment of Dooru, PDP’s Mufti
Tassaduq is just three-month-old in the party. Unlike Nazir Khan, he however
has the distinction of being the former Chief Minister and the PDP founder
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s only son.
Tassaduq was basically an accomplished cinematographer in
United States of America before he shot into prominence with his Bollywood magnum
opus ‘Omkara’. Hardly anybody knew him in Jammu and Kashmir until the day he
attended his father’s funeral in January 2016. Being baptized into politics
with his maiden election, Tassaduq would arguably hold the key to the Mufti
dynasty’s influence over the party. His victory could pave his way one day to
the hot seat of power but his defeat, in the most hostile ambience, could not
only cause fissures in PDP but also lend superiority in the coalition to BJP
that would find it easier to accomplish its political agenda in Jammu and Kashmir.
“We have never before contested any election in such a
hostile atmosphere but we are still hopeful that our arch rival NC has little
capacity and cadre to make inroads in South Kashmir”, said a senior PDP leader,
insisting to be anonymous. “Notice that Mehbooba Ji gave a crushing defeat to
NC in the Assembly by-election (in Anantnag) last June”.
Ghulam Ahmad Mir, contrarily, claims that with the NC
support---as also possible support from the CPM MLA Mohammad Yousuf
Tarigami---he would win “hands down” this time in South Kashmir. “They have
killed and left injured most of the 90-odd people in South Kashmir in the last
8 months of turmoil. That’s fresh on everybody’s mind. They are being despised
for their saffron label and being bedfellows with BJP and RSS. Besides, their
government has failed on all fronts---governance, development, employment,
restoration of peace. Who on earth will come out to vote for them?”, Mir
asserted.
That is not the PDP’s only problem in the current situation.
Factionalism seems to have touched its zenith as the family coterie in which
Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti’s mother, maternal uncle Sartaj Madni and brother
Tassaduq are the most important characters, has emerged as a parallel power
centre. A number of the senior leaders have been heard whispering against
Madni, Peerzada Mansoor and the all-important Works Minister Naeem Akhtar.
Estranged Minister Maulvi Imran Ansari’s MLA uncle Maulvi Abid Ansari has
publicly assailed Akhtar for “presiding over mischiefs” when the young Shia leader
failed to get a portfolio of his choice in the recent reshuffle.
Even as the most important of the estranged leaders, Syed
Altaf Bukhari, has been lately inducted back into the Cabinet and given a
prestigious portfolio, MLAs Javed Mustafa Mir (Chadoura), Abdul Majid Paddar
(Noorabad) and Mohammad Ashraf Mir (Sonwar) are still perceived to be upset as
none of them has been brought back as Minister. Mehbooba had dropped them when
she succeeded her father in April 2016. Even late Mufti’s loyal Abdul Rehman
Veeri has gone into hibernation after his prestigious Works portfolio was
shifted to Akhtar.
Two more of the PDP’s MLAs, namely Mohammad Khalil Bandh
(Pulwama) and Abdul Rahim Rather (Kokernag) are also known to have shown little
enthusiasm in mobilising their cadres after announcement of the elections.
Possessing impressive organisational capacities, Mehbooba,
nevertheless, is expected to keep her flock together and make it deliver.
Significantly, it remains to be seen whether she would give in to Imran
Ansari’s pressure and give him a better portfolio or stand firm to keep her own
prestige.
In South Kashmir, much would depend on Jamaat-e-Islami’s
behaviour as its cadres this time around would not find it easy to tilt the
balance in PDP’s favour as they are known to have done with 70-80% boycott and
20-30% voting in almost all elections after 1998. NC’s traditional bĂȘte noire,
Jamaat, though not contesting elections after 1989, has a substantial
concentration in Pulwama, Shopian and Kulgam districts. “It will be seen as
open treason this time. None of us will turn out to cast a vote”, said a senior
Jamaat leader, though he disputed claims that his party had supported PDP in
several elections post-1990.
In the Assembly elections of 2014, PDP had won 11 seats
while as NC and Congress had bagged two each in South Kashmir. CPM retained its
one-odd seat of Kulgam. NC had fared slightly better in its traditional bastion
of Central Kashmir as it had retained 7 seats against equal number by PDP. PDF
Chairman had retained his seat in Khansahab. Like Tarigami in South, Yasin is
expected to support the NC-Congress alliance in Central Kashmir.
This time around, in Central Kashmir, the opposition is
chiefly relying on a substantial committed chunk of Gujjar and Shia voters who,
in defiance of the separatists’ boycott calls, have the history of turning up
at polling station ahead of all. As Ansari’s Shia followers are still undecided
but pretty upset, both factions of the Aghas of Budgam are known to be the NC
supporters. In Kangan and Ganderbal, besides in two segments in Budgam, the
Gujjar vote being mobilised by senior NC leader and MLA Kangan Mian Altaf Ahmad
could be pivotal for Dr Abdullah whose mother was also Gujjar.
Even as much would depend on the actual turnout---expected
to be 20-25% in Central Kashmir and 15-20% in South Kashmir---Dr Abdullah,
defeated by then PDP’s Karra in 2014, has clearly better prospects in Srinagar.
It is an irony that this time Karra would be campaigning for Dr Abdullah. In
the thick of last year’s turmoil, he had quit PDP for what he called
“brutality” of security forces. He has lately joined Congress.
PDP’s significant advantage is that this party currently is
ruling the State in partnership with BJP and controlling the official
machinery.
END
[STATE TIMES]